Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $248,379$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.73 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{305,505.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 94.7)}}\) (asimptote \(305,505.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,084$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,123.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 67.3)}}\) (asimptote \(11,123.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26,832$ on 2020-07-08

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $52,007$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,011.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 97.5)}}\) (asimptote \(52,011.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $379$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(35.1 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{375.6}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 55.6)}}\) (asimptote \(375.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,520$ on 2020-07-08

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $67,442$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(88.4 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{122,042.7}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 121.2)}}\) (asimptote \(122,042.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,779$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,618.2}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 122.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,618.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26,784$ on 2020-07-08

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $208,938$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(5.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{187,777.2}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(187,777.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,282$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(1.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,916.6}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,916.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,145$ on 2020-07-08

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $220,144$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(6.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{303,439.5}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 100.4)}}\) (asimptote \(303,439.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,059$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(50.8 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,672.0}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 107.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,672.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $60,035$ on 2020-07-08

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,931$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(552 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,322.6}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 117.3)}}\) (asimptote \(43,322.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $98$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(0.912 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{219.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 115.6)}}\) (asimptote \(219.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,760$ on 2020-07-08

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $101,553$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,032.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 90.4)}}\) (asimptote \(107,032.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $138$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(3.99 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{178.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 84.7)}}\) (asimptote \(178.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,308$ on 2020-07-08

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,207$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(278 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{75,919.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 120.8)}}\) (asimptote \(75,919.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $233$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(4.37 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{411.0}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 96.4)}}\) (asimptote \(411.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,969$ on 2020-07-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Malaysia recovered 97%
Sri Lanka recovered 88%
Qatar recovered 85%
Singapore recovered 81%
Turkey recovered 80%
Afghanistan recovered 41%
Bahrain recovered 17%
Pakistan recovered 17%
Nepal recovered 16%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,950$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(5.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.001t}\) (doubling rate \(229.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83,302.4}{1 + 10^{-0.089 (t - 15.1)}}\) (asimptote \(83,302.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,641$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(119.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,678.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,678.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $507$ on 2020-07-08

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,677$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,395.7}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,395.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(61.9 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(91.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 18.1)}}\) (asimptote \(117.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $70$ on 2020-07-08

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,094$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(271 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,218.7}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 63.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,218.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(6.23 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(99.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 10.7)}}\) (asimptote \(11.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $116$ on 2020-07-08

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $45,298$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,893.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 103.8)}}\) (asimptote \(43,893.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-07-08

Best fit exponential: \(8.34 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.0}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(26.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,949$ on 2020-07-08